| |
| |
|
Investing Information |
|
|
|
Global Markets: A Window on the World Economy
Expectations drive the market. Every stock price is driven by what people expect the company to do. That's why all the talk about a strong or weak economy has such an impact. But those aren't the only expectations moving us. We've seen the impact of war and terrorism worries on markets and the impact of SARS concerns on Asian markets. Markets move on a combination of expectations and reality, and every reality leads us to new expectations. Great earnings? I expect the company will earn more. A sales slump? I expect the company to struggle next year too. The question is: if all decisions are made on expectations (and they are), how can things turn around? If our expectations are so colored by past events, we'll expect the future to be as grim as the past, and nothing can ever change, can it? Ah, but we have long memories. Ask yourself: what would it take for you to change your outlook? What would it take for all of us to change our outlook? The answer to that last question effectively tells us when the market will turn, because when everyone is upbeat and buying, the market will fly. Consistently rising earnings will change expectations, but how much positive news is necessary before the turn begins? Will some companies turn before the market? Consider Constellation Brands or Fortune Brands, two of our recommendations that haven't seen any drops, and in fact are defying estimates of weakness. Should we expect those shares to rise based upon their own positive trends, or will the market turn first? The answers aren't simple or uniform. There's no answer, only conjecture. We can make estimations. In the past, we've seen market turnarounds led by small stocks or led by big stocks, led by technology, or led by consumer goods. So, as we near the turn, you'll likely hear all kinds of suggestions for where the upturn will begin. Preserve your sanity with a little skepticism. I suspect the first to turn will be the ones that have had the best results for a long time. That's precisely why we're so aggressive in our recommendations of companies like Fortune and Constellation. If they are successful in maintaining their records, this type of firm will rise sooner than the rest. It doesn't matter whether the companies are big or small, techie or traditional. The best companies will start the upward move. Without support from a strengthening economy and a rising market, even these success stories can't rise far. That's why expectations of the broader economy are important. That's where we'll have to wait and see. Expectations should rise now with the ending war (with stock prices and consumer spending following). Expect some good news for a while. Surprises from companies like McDonald's will also provide a boost. Surprises shake people out of expectation ruts. When we've become too negative (or too positive), a shock can wake us up to the change. Let's hope that McDonald's profit boost is a harbinger of things to come. While the longer term still holds some uncertainty, there is hope. Success is largely a matter of recognizing expectations, and following through when we see an opening. For the moment, at least, there appears to be an opening. We don't know yet what the future holds, but the present looks good. To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson's Investment Advisor Services, visit http://www.valueview.net Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor's Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.
MORE RESOURCES:
Investing - Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
Getting Started In Investing Are you ready to open your pathway to financial independence?Well you should be. The sooner the better. Should You Put Your Annuity in an IRA? Let me start by answering that question.. Investing for Retirement - Not an All or Nothing Play In 1519, Hernando Cortes, beached on the shores of unexplored Mexico, made a fateful decision: he would burn the ships he and his men arrived in and attempt to overthrow Montezuma and the mighty Aztec empire. The decision was risky. Chinas Great Missed Opportunity While a U.S. Volatile Oil The Light Crude Continuous Contract fell from $67.70 a barrel on Monday to $62. Investing Pointers for Neophyte Investors If you know next to nothing, how do you go about the business of investing? The first thing you need to know about investing is, how much do you really know? If its' not much, then you will need to read extensively to educate yourself.To become well-informed, you should read up on the basics. Risk and Reward If you are doing your own investing in the stock market, what would be the first question you would ask yourself before you make any trade or investment? If your answer is how fundamentally sound the stock is, or whether the stock just broke out of a trading range on a chart, or the fact that the stock has gone down 50% in the last 6 months, or whether the volatility is low now so it is a good time to buy or sell, then you are probably on the road to ruin. These strategies have nothing in common with each other and there are all kinds of different criteria that I did not mention that have nothing in common with each other. How to Setup a Profitable Trading Business In my opinion trading is the most exciting and best way to earn a living in the world. With just a small amount of equipment and space you can do it from anywhere on the planet. The Truth About Real Estate Investing - Is It Right For You? You have probably been hearing, seeing and reading that real estate investing is the best thing since sliced bread. There are many late night cable television infomercials spewing out sales pitches for courses that teach you how to buy residential real estate no money down or for next to nothing. Looking For a Safe Investment? Try a Certificate of Deposit If you are looking for a safe investment and you have between $100 -$1,000 to invest, you should consider a certificate of deposit or CD. When purchased through a bank, CD's are federally insured up to $100,000. Dumb Money Many people have, at one time or another, taken some of their hard-earned funds, and decided to put them in the stock market. These well-meaning individuals either acted on a tip they saw on CNBC, or actually believed one of those crazy faxes/emails that said XBXB @ $0. Trading Systems A trading system consists of a set of rules for viewing markets and making trades. The advantages of trading systems can be hidden when they become associated with trading platforms involving trade order submission and processing. Buy: Hold: Sell: Jump I'm sitting here at my computer desk with a cup of coffee at my elbow. The coffee rest in a mug, the mug garnished with the words Buy, Hold, Sell, Jump, vertically along its sides. What My Horse Had For Breakfast Let's see, he had some oats, fresh alfalfa and his vitamins. I know from the mixture that is great food and he will win the seventh race this afternoon. Franchise Opportunity Sellers Beware; franchise buyers lie on forms? It seems completely absurd that franchise buyers lie about their financial position, available cash and abilities in order to buy a franchise. After spending 8 years setting up franchises around the nation and fielding inquiries I am appalled at the lack of integrity of the average business buyer. The 8 Biggest Mistakes When Designing Portfolios - and How To Avoid Them Are you as good an investor as you think? Do you consider yourself a well-informed investor able to anticipate and avoid nearly all pitfalls associated with investing? Chances are, you are making one of the common errors that could cost you hundreds or even thousands of dollars, or worse yet, your financial independence, control and security."I see people making the same costly mistakes over and over," says Scott Frush, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER and author of Optimal Investing: How To Protect and Grow Your Wealth With Asset Allocation (Marshall Rand Publishing; available by calling 1-800-247-6553). Why Should I Use Penny Shares to Build Wealth? A strategic question. Why indeed?1. Investing & Online Stock & Share Trading: Money & Risk Management - Atkinson Portfolio Planner (1) This article was originally featured in Daryl Guppy's 'Tutorials in Applied Technical Analysis', voted no 1 trading newsletter in Australia by Shares magazine & no 4 in the world by US Stocks & Commodities magazine and is reprinted here with Daryl's permission.In addition to developing sound technical analysis skills, strong trading psychology coupled with well thought-out money and risk management are also vital key secrets for success when trading or investing in the market. Powerful Hidden Techniques Mystery Formula - The Covered Call Option Trading Buy-Write Strategy For better or worse, most option trading investors purchase stocks with the intent of holding their shares for an extended period of time.We do this mainly because the media and industry professionals have drilled into our heads, year after year, time after time, that it’s best to buy and hold. Scots Beat Yanks in China Bank Deal With visions of an ATM in every neighborhood in China, foreign banks and investment firms are queuing up to join the "China Club."Moneybags CommunismThe initiation fee for the "China Club" is straightforward and pure moneybags communism: invest cold hard cash in its largely insolvent state-owned banks, put your reputation on the line, reassure nervous foreign investors about upcoming IPO's, and share your risk management, corporate banking and other expertise with eager Chinese executives.
|
| home | site map |
| © 2006 |
