| |
| |
|
Investing Information |
|
|
|
The Past Does Not Equal The Future: Mutual Fund Returns!
A way that investors get ripped off and in a sense rip themselves off is based on the culture of performance in the mutual fund industry. If you stop and think about it there is absolutely no reason that the past has to equal the future. If you have not been particularly successful as a stock investor in the past, for instance, there is no reason that you won't be unsuccessful in the future. One reason I hope that you are reading this article is that you want to improve as an investor. Let's discuss how professional gamblers profit in Las Vegas. Card counters are a type of professional gambler that uses their memory of what card cards have been dealt out of a deck in a game of blackjack (also called 21). Since there are only a certain number of each type of card they can increase their bets when it is more likely that they will win then lose. This works because after the shuffle the deck starts with a certain composition and a number of games are played until the next shuffle. Toward the end of the deck you can know what may be coming out if you are paying attention because each hand in the deck is depends on what has been dealt before. There are no professional gamblers who count the numbers rolled on a pair of dice on the craps tables. This is because there are only two dice and each roll is different. In other words, each roll of the dice is independent of any other roll. Since each roll is different it doesn't matter what was rolled in the past. The same thing would happen if the deck in a game of blackjack were shuffled each time between hands. This is a lot like the stock market where we don't know what the general level will be from time to time because of random information entering the market in the sort term. Mutual fund managers try to outsmart the market in the short term instead of patiently waiting in the long term where it is more likely to correctly determine if stocks are high or low. So why then does the public pay so much attention to the nonsensical advertising of mutual funds that brag about prior performance in past years? Mutual funds buy expensive ads in newspapers, magazines, and on television where they tout their performance over the past one, three, five, and ten years. The mutual fund industry irresponsibly promotes this "culture of performance," even though it knows perfectly well that it misleads investors. Studies have shown that if you take the top 10% highest yielding funds in any year, four out of five of them will not be in the top 10% a year later! For this reason I strongly recommend that if you can only buy mutual funds, as in the case of the 401(k), then restrict your purchases to indexed funds like the Vanguard 500 (VFINX). ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Dr. Scott Brown, Ph.D., a.k.a. "The Wallet Doctor", is a successful futures trader, real estate investor, and stock investor. Dr. Brown holds a Ph.D. in finance from the University of South Carolina. His 1998 articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities were prophetic in predicting an impending stock market crash. He has helped many people become profitable investors by teaching them to look out over many years to spot stocks that are low and primed for rise in the new bull market. His second article met with approval by Dr. Bob Shiller of Yale University. Dr. Shiller is the economist that Alan Greenspan most highly regards who coined the term "Irrational Exuberance." In 1998 he shouted to the world to "get out" of the stock market but now he is shouting to everyone that it is time to "get in!" The Wallet Doctor is not only sought after for investment advice and coaching in stock investing but also in futures trading and real estate investing. Visit Dr. Brown's site at http://www.BonanzaBase.com or sign up for his investment tips at http://www.WalletDoctor.com
MORE RESOURCES:
Investing - Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
Numismatics are for Collectors, Not Investors As a precious metals investor, you may heard much about numismatic and "semi-numismatic" coins, particularly the St. Gaudens $20 double eagle gold coin. An Old Dividend Stock Investment Idea, for a New Generation Death and taxes! The certainties of life! And then, of course, there are the mortgage payments, the utility bills, phone bills, the car payments and thirsty automobiles. Add that to the grocery and clothing bills, and there appears to be more then just death and taxes as certainties of life. How to Terror-Proof Your Money "To drift is to be in hell, to be in heaven is to steer." -George Bernard ShawFormer Homeland Security Director, Tom Ridge, has said it's not a matter of "if" we'll have another terrorist attack, but when. Find Your Investing Soulmate on the Jersey Turnpike As a followup to a previous column, "Irreconcilable Differences," I received an e-mail from a reader asking how she could ensure, ahead of time, investment compatibility with a future spouse.Unfortunately, like most issues in life, the direct approach does not work. The Arrow-Debreu Contingent Claims Model of Investment Throughout the discussion of speculation and stability, we emphasized that uncertainty theorists now have a generally accepted framework for modeling choice under uncertainty. Economic theorists have chosen to model uncertainty as the revelation of a state of the world. Planning for Retirement Almost without exception, people don't start planning for their retirement early enough in their lives. Young people leaving High School or College and going into their first paid position find it difficult to look or see ahead to age sixty or sixty-five. Find a Methodology and Minimize Investment Madness There are many reasons to be investing these days, and too much opportunity to not have your money working for you.However, I believe the majority of people dread having to deal with investment matters, and tend to jump into purchases and then hold their breath hoping for the best. The Truth About Real Estate Investing - Is It Right For You? You have probably been hearing, seeing and reading that real estate investing is the best thing since sliced bread. There are many late night cable television infomercials spewing out sales pitches for courses that teach you how to buy residential real estate no money down or for next to nothing. Retirement - Its Sooner Than You Think!! (Honestly) Many people hear "retirement" and think- what? 401K? Roth vs. Traditional IRA? Stocks, bonds, mutual funds? Do they?Or do many people put money away according to the suggested amount and then simply hope that when retirement comes all will work out?One report I read estimated that 66 million Americans have put away a Whopping $0 towards retirement. Preholiday Trading The Light Crude Continuous Contract closed at $66.13 a barrel Friday, after hitting an all-time high at $67. Stock Market Retirement Investment Plan For a successful retirement investment plan to work in the stock market, some 'reasonably sure' assumptions would have to be made:The retirement investment plan must take into consideration the one prevailing constant in any stock market security - risk and uncertainty. Understanding that risk and uncertainty are the key factors that propels the return on investment in the stock market far beyond the returns of Passbook Savings Accounts, CD's or Bonds are a start. Sitcom Investing A fickle stock market encourages good-humored mockery.Recently, as I watched the premiere of a sitcom, an obvious omission breached television etiquette. Retirement Plan Considerations Cheat Sheet for Small Business RETIREMENT PLAN CONSIDERATIONS are something every small business person needs to be thinking about. Do you have a strategic plan? Don't expect to have social security save you. Success Trading: Some Basic Terminology for New Traders The world of trading can get very complex because the financial markets are complex. There thousands and thousands of successful traders out there today. Retirement Is A Scary Proposition If Youre Without A Plan, And Running Out Of Time Of the 75 million baby boomers nearing retirement today, many are:* Debt Ridden* Severely unprepared for retirement* Under Funded* Without a StrategyThis is a very serious problem in a country that we can all remember used to assure most people of a retirement where you are taken care of financially.We all know that social security alone is not the answer to this problem. Value Investing By definition, value investing is the process of selecting stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic value. A value investor typically selects stocks with lower than average price-to-book or price-to-earning ratios. Stock Market Leaders and Laggards Leaders are stocks that breakout immediately when the market confirms a new rally. In the first several weeks, strong stocks with leadership ability will breakout on volume above their 50-day average. Profitability And Stock Turn Rate The inventory of the typical store represents the largest single element of its total assets. The sale of goods from this inventory is the merchant's chief source of operating profit. The Economy Is Not The Stock Market Several days ago, the Commerce Department reported that May's factory orders had increased by a 2.9 percent. Franchise Opportunity Sellers Beware; franchise buyers lie on forms? It seems completely absurd that franchise buyers lie about their financial position, available cash and abilities in order to buy a franchise. After spending 8 years setting up franchises around the nation and fielding inquiries I am appalled at the lack of integrity of the average business buyer.
|
| home | site map |
| © 2006 |
